Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
